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Simon Rösner v Omar Mosaad (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 11-8,11-2,11-7.

Starting level for Simon Rösner: 55,687, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 37,855, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Omar Mosaad.

Simon Rösner won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played 94% better than Omar Mosaad in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Rösner actually played at a level of 63,969 and Omar Mosaad at a level of 32,954. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to +12% and Omar Mosaad changes to -7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes +2.7% and for Omar Mosaad becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 74%, Omar Mosaad: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 64%, Omar Mosaad: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Rösner: 56,756, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Omar Mosaad: 37,256, level confidence: 82%.