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Paul Coll v Karim Ali Fathi (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-3,11-3.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 57,175, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 30,817, level confidence: 69%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Paul Coll won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 44% better than Karim Ali Fathi in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Coll was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 46,301 and 57,175 without affecting his level.

As Paul Coll has played below his allowed range at 45,330, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Coll would normally have been playing at level 51,451 (based on typical behaviour), Karim Ali Fathi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to -1.6% and Karim Ali Fathi changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes -0.6% and for Karim Ali Fathi becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 82%, Karim Ali Fathi: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 72%, Karim Ali Fathi: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 56,481, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 31,410, level confidence: 73%.