Mohamed Elshorbagy v Cesar Salazar (Tue 26 Feb 2019)
Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 10-12,11-4,11-8,11-8.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
64,908, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Cesar Salazar:
38,280, level confidence: 60%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
70% better than Cesar Salazar.
Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played
28% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.
As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 52,135, his level reduction is 6.3% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 59,983 (based on typical behaviour), Cesar Salazar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -4.4% and Cesar Salazar changes to +8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -1.3% and for Cesar Salazar becomes +2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 81%, Cesar Salazar: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 70%, Cesar Salazar: 67%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
63,877, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar:
39,137, level confidence: 67%.