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Alan Clyne v Pietro Gagliardini (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-3,11-1,11-0.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 34,921, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Pietro Gagliardini: 4,667, level confidence: 63%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 648% better than Pietro Gagliardini.

Alan Clyne won all of the games and 89% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 725% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 725% better than Pietro Gagliardini in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 36,668 and Pietro Gagliardini at a level of 4,445. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 1.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +1.4% and Pietro Gagliardini changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +0.6% and for Pietro Gagliardini becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Scottish Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 89%, Pietro Gagliardini: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 85%, Pietro Gagliardini: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 35,065, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Pietro Gagliardini: 4,610, level confidence: 76%.