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Saurav Ghosal v Joel Makin (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-13,11-7,11-7,14-12.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,344, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 51,480, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Saurav Ghosal.

Saurav Ghosal won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 24% better than Joel Makin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 56,580 and Joel Makin at a level of 45,806. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +12% and Joel Makin changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +2.7% and for Joel Makin becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 86%, Joel Makin: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 77%, Joel Makin: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 51,508, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 50,185, level confidence: 76%.