Paul Coll v Fares Dessouky (Wed 27 Feb 2019)
Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-5,11-6,6-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Paul Coll:
57,175, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Fares Dessouky:
50,772, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Fares Dessouky.
Paul Coll won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played
27% better than Fares Dessouky in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of
60,634 and Fares Dessouky at a level of
47,875. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +5.6% and Fares Dessouky changes to -5.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +1.5% and for Fares Dessouky becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 89%, Fares Dessouky: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 84%, Fares Dessouky: 83%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Coll:
57,846, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Fares Dessouky:
50,054, level confidence: 83%.