Robert Downer v Diego Gobbi (Fri 01 Mar 2019)
Match won by Robert Downer. Result: 11-6,11-8,8-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Robert Downer:
21,440, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
19,641, level confidence: 50%.
Robert Downer to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Diego Gobbi.
Robert Downer won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Downer played
29% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Downer actually played at a level of
23,294 and Diego Gobbi at a level of
18,078. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Downer changes to +6.3% and Diego Gobbi changes to -8.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Downer becomes +2% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -2.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hampshire Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Downer: 81%, Diego Gobbi: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Downer: 75%, Diego Gobbi: 65%.
Final level for Robert Downer:
21,860, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
19,176, level confidence: 65%.