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Robert Downer v Diego Gobbi (Fri 01 Mar 2019)

Match won by Robert Downer. Result: 11-6,11-8,8-11,11-5.

Starting level for Robert Downer: 21,440, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 19,641, level confidence: 50%.
Robert Downer to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Diego Gobbi.

Robert Downer won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Downer played 29% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Downer actually played at a level of 23,294 and Diego Gobbi at a level of 18,078. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Downer changes to +6.3% and Diego Gobbi changes to -8.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Downer becomes +2% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hampshire Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Downer: 81%, Diego Gobbi: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Downer: 75%, Diego Gobbi: 65%.

Final level for Robert Downer: 21,860, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 19,176, level confidence: 65%.