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Chris Cave v David Freer (Mon 04 Mar 2019)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 11-6,7-11,9-11,11-7,10-11.

Starting level for Chris Cave: 1,799, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,397, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Chris Cave to win as he is currently playing 29% better than David Freer.

David Freer won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 6% better than Chris Cave in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Freer actually played at a level of 1,636 and Chris Cave at a level of 1,536. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to +15% and Chris Cave changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes +7.6% and for Chris Cave becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Freer is +5.7% and for Chris Cave is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 87%, Chris Cave: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 74%, Chris Cave: 78%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Cave: 1,755, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,475, level confidence: 74%.