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Jeremy Wright v Ray Owens (Fri 01 Mar 2019)

Match won by Jeremy Wright. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Jeremy Wright: 295, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Ray Owens: 252, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Jeremy Wright to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Ray Owens.

Jeremy Wright won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Jeremy Wright has played below his allowed range at 284, his level reduction is 2.3% before damping. On the assumption that Jeremy Wright would normally have been playing at level 293 (based on typical behaviour), Ray Owens played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 2.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Wright changes to -1.9% and Ray Owens changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Wright becomes -1.9% and for Ray Owens becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Jeremy Wright is -0.9% and for Ray Owens is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Wright: 80%, Ray Owens: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Wright: 78%, Ray Owens: 87%.

Final level for Jeremy Wright: 292, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ray Owens: 254, level confidence: 87%.