Steve Baker v Allister Crossley (Wed 06 Mar 2019)
Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 4-15,15-7,15-7,15-9.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,248, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Allister Crossley:
1,605, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
40% better than Allister Crossley.
Steve Baker won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played
26% better than Allister Crossley in this match.
As Steve Baker has played below his allowed range at 2,038, his level reduction is 0.5% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Baker would normally have been playing at level 2,169 (based on typical behaviour), Allister Crossley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 2.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to -0.4% and Allister Crossley changes to +2.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes -0.3% and for Allister Crossley becomes +2.4%.
Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.
Given Allister Crossley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is 0% and for Allister Crossley is +0.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 88%, Allister Crossley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 83%, Allister Crossley: 83%.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,246, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Allister Crossley:
1,618, level confidence: 83%.