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Gareth Lumsdon v Nick Hiley (Tue 26 Feb 2019)

Match won by Gareth Lumsdon. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Gareth Lumsdon: 12,908, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,259, level confidence: 64%.
Gareth Lumsdon to win as he is currently playing 203% better than Nick Hiley.

Gareth Lumsdon won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gareth Lumsdon played 200% better than Nick Hiley in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Gareth Lumsdon was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,808 and 12,908 without affecting his level.

In this case, Gareth Lumsdon played at level 12,777 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Nick Hiley is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gareth Lumsdon: 72%, Nick Hiley: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gareth Lumsdon: 72%, Nick Hiley: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gareth Lumsdon: 12,889, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,253, level confidence: 80%.