SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Paul Nieduszynski v Ben Terry (Tue 05 Mar 2019)

Match won by Paul Nieduszynski. Result: 9-11,11-6,11-5,10-12,11-5.

Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,162, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Terry: 2,036, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Ben Terry.

Paul Nieduszynski won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Nieduszynski played 16% better than Ben Terry in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Nieduszynski actually played at a level of 2,258 and Ben Terry at a level of 1,949. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski changes to +4% and Ben Terry changes to -4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski becomes +2.6% and for Ben Terry becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski is +2% and for Ben Terry is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Nieduszynski: 89%, Ben Terry: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Nieduszynski: 85%, Ben Terry: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,201, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Ben Terry: 1,991, level confidence: 82%.