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Mark Webster-Smith v Joshua Green (Thu 07 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mark Webster-Smith. Result: 15-14,15-14,6-15,15-7.

Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,998, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joshua Green: 2,198, level confidence: 69%.
Joshua Green to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Mark Webster-Smith.

Mark Webster-Smith won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Webster-Smith played 17% better than Joshua Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Webster-Smith actually played at a level of 2,271 and Joshua Green at a level of 1,934. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith changes to +11% and Joshua Green changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith becomes +5.4% and for Joshua Green becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith is +4.1% and for Joshua Green is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Webster-Smith: 88%, Joshua Green: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Webster-Smith: 78%, Joshua Green: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,076, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Joshua Green: 2,104, level confidence: 73%.