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Douglas Jacobsson v David O'Neill (Thu 07 Mar 2019)

Match won by Douglas Jacobsson. Result: 15-4,15-14,15-11.

Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,639, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for David O'Neill: 1,551, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Douglas Jacobsson to win as he is currently playing 6% better than David O'Neill.

Douglas Jacobsson won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Douglas Jacobsson played 55% better than David O'Neill in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Douglas Jacobsson actually played at a level of 1,986 and David O'Neill at a level of 1,280. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson changes to +21% and David O'Neill changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson becomes +9.3% and for David O'Neill becomes -8.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson is +7% and for David O'Neill is -6.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David O'Neill is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Douglas Jacobsson: 84%, David O'Neill: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Douglas Jacobsson: 69%, David O'Neill: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,751, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for David O'Neill: 1,502, level confidence: 73%.