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Mark Stratford v Mark Grace (Thu 07 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mark Stratford. Result: 15-5,15-9,10-15,15-10.

Starting level for Mark Stratford: 1,225, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Grace: 1,265, level confidence: 62%.
Mark Grace to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Mark Stratford.

Mark Stratford won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Stratford played 30% better than Mark Grace in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Stratford actually played at a level of 1,421 and Mark Grace at a level of 1,091. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Stratford changes to +14% and Mark Grace changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Stratford becomes +7.6% and for Mark Grace becomes -8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Stratford is +5.7% and for Mark Grace is -6.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Stratford: 84%, Mark Grace: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Stratford: 73%, Mark Grace: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Stratford: 1,293, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Mark Grace: 1,193, level confidence: 68%.