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Rob Boyles v Nathan Quilliam (Thu 07 Mar 2019)

Match won by Rob Boyles. Result: 15-14,15-9,10-15,9-15,15-10.

Starting level for Rob Boyles: 2,245, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,892, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Rob Boyles to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Nathan Quilliam.

Rob Boyles won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Boyles played 8% better than Nathan Quilliam in this match.

As Rob Boyles has played below his allowed range at 2,120, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Boyles would normally have been playing at level 2,225 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Quilliam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Boyles changes to -3.5% and Nathan Quilliam changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Boyles becomes -2.4% and for Nathan Quilliam becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Rob Boyles is -1.8% and for Nathan Quilliam is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Boyles: 86%, Nathan Quilliam: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Boyles: 82%, Nathan Quilliam: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Boyles: 2,202, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,927, level confidence: 84%.