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Brian Cowley v Magnus Lamprecht (Fri 08 Mar 2019)

Match won by Magnus Lamprecht. Result: 6-15,15-10,3-15,9-15.

Starting level for Brian Cowley: 615, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,120, level confidence: 54%.
Magnus Lamprecht to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Brian Cowley.

Magnus Lamprecht won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Magnus Lamprecht played 39% better than Brian Cowley in this match.

As Magnus Lamprecht has played below his allowed range at 874, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Magnus Lamprecht would normally have been playing at level 1,014 (based on typical behaviour), Brian Cowley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 6.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht changes to -1.8% and Brian Cowley changes to +4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht becomes -1.7% and for Brian Cowley becomes +3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht is -1.3% and for Brian Cowley is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Magnus Lamprecht: 74%, Brian Cowley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Magnus Lamprecht: 64%, Brian Cowley: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Brian Cowley: 632, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,104, level confidence: 64%.