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James Martin v David Freer (Mon 11 Mar 2019)

Match won by James Martin. Result: 11-10,11-4,9-11,11-4.

Starting level for James Martin: 1,525, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,441, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
James Martin to win as he is currently playing 6% better than David Freer.

James Martin won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Martin played 32% better than David Freer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Martin actually played at a level of 1,700 and David Freer at a level of 1,293. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Martin changes to +11% and David Freer changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Martin becomes +5.8% and for David Freer becomes -6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Freer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Martin: 87%, David Freer: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Martin: 78%, David Freer: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Martin: 1,612, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,397, level confidence: 78%.