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Allister Crossley v Oliver Wait (Mon 11 Mar 2019)

Match won by Oliver Wait. Result: 11-6,11-6,4-11,10-11,8-11.

Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,620, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Oliver Wait: 1,392, level confidence: 69%.
Allister Crossley to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Oliver Wait.

Oliver Wait won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Wait played 8% better than Allister Crossley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Wait actually played at a level of 1,561 and Allister Crossley at a level of 1,445. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Wait changes to +11% and Allister Crossley changes to -9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Wait becomes +6.1% and for Allister Crossley becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Wait: 83%, Allister Crossley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Wait: 74%, Allister Crossley: 80%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,578, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Oliver Wait: 1,475, level confidence: 74%.