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Robert Colquitt v Stuart Highy (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Robert Colquitt. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-0.

Starting level for Robert Colquitt: 2,042, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Stuart Highy: 872, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Robert Colquitt to win as he is currently playing 134% better than Stuart Highy.

Robert Colquitt won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Colquitt played 371% better than Stuart Highy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Colquitt actually played at a level of 2,897 and Stuart Highy at a level of 615. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Colquitt changes to +26% and Stuart Highy changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Colquitt becomes +10.4% and for Stuart Highy becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Stuart Highy is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Colquitt: 83%, Stuart Highy: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Colquitt: 58%, Stuart Highy: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Colquitt: 2,243, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Stuart Highy: 829, level confidence: 63%.