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David Freer v Beth Jones (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 11-5,11-10,11-6.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,388, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Beth Jones: 700, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Beth Jones.

David Freer won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 56% better than Beth Jones in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Freer was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,074 and 1,388 without affecting his level.

In this case, David Freer played at level 1,156 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Freer would normally have been playing at level 1,221 (based on typical behaviour), Beth Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to 0% and Beth Jones changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes 0% and for Beth Jones becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 85%, Beth Jones: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 75%, Beth Jones: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Freer: 1,386, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Beth Jones: 723, level confidence: 76%.