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Ben Peach v Steve Baker (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Ben Peach. Result: 11-10,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Ben Peach: 2,436, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,308, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Ben Peach to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Steve Baker.

Ben Peach won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Peach played 43% better than Steve Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Peach actually played at a level of 2,838 and Steve Baker at a level of 1,981. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Peach changes to +16% and Steve Baker changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Peach becomes +6.6% and for Steve Baker becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Peach: 77%, Steve Baker: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Peach: 67%, Steve Baker: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Peach: 2,594, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 2,195, level confidence: 78%.