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Patrick Fitzpatrick v Douglas Jacobsson (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 11-2,11-6,11-2.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,887, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,723, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Patrick Fitzpatrick to win as he is currently playing 126% better than Douglas Jacobsson.

Patrick Fitzpatrick won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played 230% better than Douglas Jacobsson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fitzpatrick actually played at a level of 4,701 and Douglas Jacobsson at a level of 1,425. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +13% and Douglas Jacobsson changes to -10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +5% and for Douglas Jacobsson becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 77%, Douglas Jacobsson: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 63%, Douglas Jacobsson: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,077, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,638, level confidence: 72%.