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Mark Stratford v Stuart Highy (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mark Stratford. Result: 7-11,11-5,11-6,7-11,11-3.

Starting level for Mark Stratford: 1,263, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Highy: 826, level confidence: 63%.
Mark Stratford to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Stuart Highy.

Mark Stratford won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Stratford played 15% better than Stuart Highy in this match.

As Mark Stratford has played below his allowed range at 1,039, his level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Stratford would normally have been playing at level 1,197 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Highy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.4% and 9.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Stratford changes to -5.9% and Stuart Highy changes to +9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Stratford becomes -4.1% and for Stuart Highy becomes +6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Stratford: 88%, Stuart Highy: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Stratford: 77%, Stuart Highy: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Stratford: 1,212, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Stuart Highy: 877, level confidence: 69%.