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Hamish Thornton v Liam Davies (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Hamish Thornton. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Hamish Thornton: 3,567, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,861, level confidence: 67%.
Hamish Thornton to win as he is currently playing 92% better than Liam Davies.

Hamish Thornton won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hamish Thornton played 200% better than Liam Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hamish Thornton actually played at a level of 4,463 and Liam Davies at a level of 1,488. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton changes to +18% and Liam Davies changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton becomes +6.4% and for Liam Davies becomes -7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Liam Davies is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hamish Thornton: 77%, Liam Davies: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hamish Thornton: 62%, Liam Davies: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hamish Thornton: 3,788, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Liam Davies: 1,770, level confidence: 66%.