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Allister Crossley v Shaun Wyllie (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Allister Crossley. Result: 11-6,11-0,11-6.

Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,580, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shaun Wyllie: 835, level confidence: 36%.
Allister Crossley to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Shaun Wyllie.

Allister Crossley won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Allister Crossley played 175% better than Shaun Wyllie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Allister Crossley actually played at a level of 1,905 and Shaun Wyllie at a level of 693. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Allister Crossley changes to +6.6% and Shaun Wyllie changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Allister Crossley becomes +4% and for Shaun Wyllie becomes -8.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Shaun Wyllie is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Allister Crossley: 89%, Shaun Wyllie: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Allister Crossley: 74%, Shaun Wyllie: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,640, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Shaun Wyllie: 794, level confidence: 50%.