Mark Stratford v Michael Fernandes (Tue 12 Mar 2019)
Match won by Mark Stratford. Result: 11-5,11-10,10-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Mark Stratford:
1,251, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Michael Fernandes:
1,045, level confidence: 26%.
Mark Stratford to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Michael Fernandes.
Mark Stratford won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Stratford played
31% better than Michael Fernandes in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Stratford actually played at a level of
1,309 and Michael Fernandes at a level of
999. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Stratford changes to +1.6% and Michael Fernandes changes to -4.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Stratford becomes +1.5% and for Michael Fernandes becomes -3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Stratford: 82%, Michael Fernandes: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Stratford: 78%, Michael Fernandes: 49%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mark Stratford:
1,268, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Michael Fernandes:
1,007, level confidence: 49%.