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Douglas Jacobsson v Magnus Lamprecht (Mon 11 Mar 2019)

Match won by Douglas Jacobsson. Result: 9-11,11-4,11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,754, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,107, level confidence: 63%.
Douglas Jacobsson to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Magnus Lamprecht.

Douglas Jacobsson won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Douglas Jacobsson played 33% better than Magnus Lamprecht in this match.

As Douglas Jacobsson has played below his allowed range at 1,512, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Douglas Jacobsson would normally have been playing at level 1,649 (based on typical behaviour), Magnus Lamprecht played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson changes to -1.9% and Magnus Lamprecht changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson becomes -1.5% and for Magnus Lamprecht becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Douglas Jacobsson: 83%, Magnus Lamprecht: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Douglas Jacobsson: 76%, Magnus Lamprecht: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,726, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,145, level confidence: 73%.