David Freer v Magnus Lamprecht (Thu 14 Mar 2019)
Match won by David Freer. Result: 8-11,11-6,11-7,11-5.
Starting level for
David Freer:
1,386, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Magnus Lamprecht:
1,143, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Magnus Lamprecht.
David Freer won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played
30% better than Magnus Lamprecht in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Freer actually played at a level of
1,437 and Magnus Lamprecht at a level of
1,102. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to +3.4% and Magnus Lamprecht changes to -3.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes +2.8% and for Magnus Lamprecht becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 87%, Magnus Lamprecht: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 83%, Magnus Lamprecht: 85%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for David Freer:
1,422, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Magnus Lamprecht:
1,118, level confidence: 85%.