SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Allister Crossley v Mark Stratford (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mark Stratford. Result: 10-11,11-6,6-11,8-11.

Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,742, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Stratford: 1,213, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Allister Crossley to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Mark Stratford.

Mark Stratford won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Stratford played 21% better than Allister Crossley in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Stratford actually played at a level of 1,596 and Allister Crossley at a level of 1,324. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Stratford changes to +25% and Allister Crossley changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Stratford becomes +12.2% and for Allister Crossley becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Stratford is limited to +10% and Allister Crossley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Stratford: 87%, Allister Crossley: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Stratford: 66%, Allister Crossley: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,657, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Mark Stratford: 1,332, level confidence: 66%.