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Douglas Jacobsson v Liam Davies (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Douglas Jacobsson. Result: 9-11,11-6,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,642, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,773, level confidence: 65%.
Liam Davies to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Douglas Jacobsson.

Douglas Jacobsson won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Douglas Jacobsson played 26% better than Liam Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Douglas Jacobsson actually played at a level of 1,913 and Liam Davies at a level of 1,522. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson changes to +15% and Liam Davies changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson becomes +7% and for Liam Davies becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Liam Davies is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Liam Davies has already dropped 7.6% since starting this event at level 1908. The amount a player can drop in a single event is limited to 11.1% so Liam Davies's drop for this match has been limited to 3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Douglas Jacobsson: 84%, Liam Davies: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Douglas Jacobsson: 72%, Liam Davies: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,755, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Liam Davies: 1,717, level confidence: 69%.