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Leslie Callow v Stuart Highy (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Leslie Callow. Result: 11-8,10-11,11-10,11-10.

Starting level for Leslie Callow: 855, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Highy: 877, level confidence: 68%.
Stuart Highy to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Leslie Callow.

Leslie Callow won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leslie Callow played 20% better than Stuart Highy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leslie Callow actually played at a level of 949 and Stuart Highy at a level of 790. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leslie Callow changes to +10.2% and Stuart Highy changes to -10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leslie Callow becomes +6.5% and for Stuart Highy becomes -6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Stuart Highy is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leslie Callow: 85%, Stuart Highy: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leslie Callow: 77%, Stuart Highy: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leslie Callow: 910, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Stuart Highy: 847, level confidence: 74%.