Mason McLarney v Robin Crease (Thu 14 Mar 2019)
Match won by Robin Crease. Result: 6-11,4-11,8-11.
Starting level for
Mason McLarney:
2,644, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Robin Crease:
3,300, level confidence: 60%.
Robin Crease to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Mason McLarney.
Robin Crease won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robin Crease played
83% better than Mason McLarney in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robin Crease actually played at a level of
4,000 and Mason McLarney at a level of
2,182. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robin Crease changes to +19% and Mason McLarney changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robin Crease becomes +6.9% and for Mason McLarney becomes -5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robin Crease: 78%, Mason McLarney: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robin Crease: 64%, Mason McLarney: 77%.
A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mason McLarney:
2,574, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Robin Crease:
3,521, level confidence: 64%.