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Oliver Wait v Chris Cave (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Chris Cave. Result: 9-11,6-11,4-11.

Starting level for Oliver Wait: 1,647, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Chris Cave: 1,968, level confidence: 68%.
Chris Cave to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Oliver Wait.

Chris Cave won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Cave played 74% better than Oliver Wait in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Cave actually played at a level of 2,373 and Oliver Wait at a level of 1,366. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Cave changes to +18% and Oliver Wait changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Cave becomes +7.8% and for Oliver Wait becomes -8.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Oliver Wait is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Cave: 83%, Oliver Wait: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Cave: 68%, Oliver Wait: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Wait: 1,578, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Chris Cave: 2,118, level confidence: 68%.