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Magnus Lamprecht v Dean Sowerby (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Magnus Lamprecht. Result: 11-7,9-11,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,116, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dean Sowerby: 1,001, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Magnus Lamprecht to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Dean Sowerby.

Magnus Lamprecht won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Magnus Lamprecht played 32% better than Dean Sowerby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Magnus Lamprecht actually played at a level of 1,212 and Dean Sowerby at a level of 922. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht changes to +7.4% and Dean Sowerby changes to -8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht becomes +4.9% and for Dean Sowerby becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dean Sowerby is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Magnus Lamprecht: 92%, Dean Sowerby: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Magnus Lamprecht: 85%, Dean Sowerby: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,169, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Dean Sowerby: 952, level confidence: 81%.