James Horrocks v Paul Nieduszynski (Tue 12 Mar 2019)
Match won by James Horrocks. Result: 11-3,9-11,11-9,11-8.
Starting level for
James Horrocks:
1,546, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Paul Nieduszynski:
2,189, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing
42% better than James Horrocks.
James Horrocks won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Horrocks played
28% better than Paul Nieduszynski in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Horrocks actually played at a level of
2,085 and Paul Nieduszynski at a level of
1,623. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Horrocks changes to +29% and Paul Nieduszynski changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Horrocks becomes +12.5% and for Paul Nieduszynski becomes -7.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for James Horrocks is +9.4% and for Paul Nieduszynski is -5.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Horrocks: 74%, Paul Nieduszynski: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Horrocks: 55%, Paul Nieduszynski: 67%.
A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Horrocks:
1,689, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski:
2,129, level confidence: 67%.