SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

James Horrocks v Paul Nieduszynski (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by James Horrocks. Result: 11-3,9-11,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for James Horrocks: 1,546, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,189, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing 42% better than James Horrocks.

James Horrocks won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Horrocks played 28% better than Paul Nieduszynski in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Horrocks actually played at a level of 2,085 and Paul Nieduszynski at a level of 1,623. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Horrocks changes to +29% and Paul Nieduszynski changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Horrocks becomes +12.5% and for Paul Nieduszynski becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for James Horrocks is +9.4% and for Paul Nieduszynski is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Horrocks: 74%, Paul Nieduszynski: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Horrocks: 55%, Paul Nieduszynski: 67%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Horrocks: 1,689, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,129, level confidence: 67%.