Nicolas Mueller v Roman Allinckx (Fri 15 Mar 2019)
Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-5.
Starting level for
Nicolas Mueller:
38,603, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Roman Allinckx:
15,004, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing
157% better than Roman Allinckx.
Nicolas Mueller won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played
154% better than Roman Allinckx in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nicolas Mueller was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,005 and 38,603 without affecting his level.
In this case, Nicolas Mueller played at level 38,087 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Roman Allinckx is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 85%, Roman Allinckx: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 84%, Roman Allinckx: 90%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller:
38,545, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Roman Allinckx:
14,982, level confidence: 90%.