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Oscar Hill v Hugo Feitor (Sat 09 Mar 2019)

Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 9-11,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Oscar Hill: 4,414, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Hugo Feitor: 4,404, level confidence: 67%.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Hugo Feitor.

Oscar Hill won 67% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played 22% better than Hugo Feitor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of 4,870 and Hugo Feitor at a level of 3,992. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 7.6% and 7.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +7.6% and Hugo Feitor changes to -7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +3.2% and for Hugo Feitor becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Dulwich Classic Graded 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 80%, Hugo Feitor: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 73%, Hugo Feitor: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oscar Hill: 4,548, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Hugo Feitor: 4,309, level confidence: 74%.