Alex Iltchev v Oscar Hill (Sat 09 Mar 2019)
Match won by Alex Iltchev. Result: 10-12,11-6,11-7.
Starting level for
Alex Iltchev:
6,518, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
4,517, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Alex Iltchev to win as he is currently playing
44% better than Oscar Hill.
Alex Iltchev won 67% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Iltchev played
24% better than Oscar Hill in this match.
As Alex Iltchev has played below his allowed range at 5,797, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Alex Iltchev would normally have been playing at level 6,253 (based on typical behaviour), Oscar Hill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 4.7% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 3.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Iltchev changes to -2.2% and Oscar Hill changes to +1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Iltchev becomes -1.2% and for Oscar Hill becomes +1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Dulwich Classic Graded 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Iltchev: 63%, Oscar Hill: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Iltchev: 59%, Oscar Hill: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alex Iltchev:
6,432, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
4,563, level confidence: 79%.