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Dean Sowerby v Leslie Callow (Fri 15 Mar 2019)

Match won by Dean Sowerby. Result: 11-10,8-11,10-11,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Dean Sowerby: 954, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leslie Callow: 910, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Dean Sowerby to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Leslie Callow.

Dean Sowerby won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dean Sowerby played 10% better than Leslie Callow in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dean Sowerby actually played at a level of 978 and Leslie Callow at a level of 888. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dean Sowerby changes to +2.1% and Leslie Callow changes to -2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dean Sowerby becomes +2.1% and for Leslie Callow becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dean Sowerby: 94%, Leslie Callow: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dean Sowerby: 92%, Leslie Callow: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dean Sowerby: 973, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Leslie Callow: 887, level confidence: 85%.