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Liam Davies v Jon Shepherd (Fri 15 Mar 2019)

Match won by Liam Davies. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,714, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jon Shepherd: 1,470, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Liam Davies to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Jon Shepherd.

Liam Davies won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Davies played 56% better than Jon Shepherd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Liam Davies actually played at a level of 1,985 and Jon Shepherd at a level of 1,269. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Davies changes to +15% and Jon Shepherd changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Davies becomes +6.9% and for Jon Shepherd becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jon Shepherd is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Davies: 86%, Jon Shepherd: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Davies: 74%, Jon Shepherd: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Davies: 1,830, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Jon Shepherd: 1,398, level confidence: 76%.