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David Freer v Mark Stratford (Fri 15 Mar 2019)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,423, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Stratford: 1,337, level confidence: 66%.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Mark Stratford.

David Freer won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 47% better than Mark Stratford in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Freer actually played at a level of 1,674 and Mark Stratford at a level of 1,137. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to +14% and Mark Stratford changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes +7% and for Mark Stratford becomes -8.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Utmost Wealth Solutions Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Stratford is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 91%, Mark Stratford: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 78%, Mark Stratford: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Freer: 1,521, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Mark Stratford: 1,280, level confidence: 69%.