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Nicolas Mueller v Robin Gadola (Sat 16 Mar 2019)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 38,202, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Robin Gadola: 23,597, level confidence: 68%.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Robin Gadola.

Nicolas Mueller won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 106% better than Robin Gadola in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of 43,119 and Robin Gadola at a level of 20,906. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +8% and Robin Gadola changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +2.1% and for Robin Gadola becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Schweizer Einzelmeisterschaft Sem 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 92%, Robin Gadola: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 81%, Robin Gadola: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 38,794, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Robin Gadola: 23,173, level confidence: 73%.