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Declan James v Greg Lobban (Mon 11 Mar 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Declan James: 38,128, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,363, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Declan James.

Declan James won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 69% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 49,753 and Greg Lobban at a level of 29,399. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +22% and Greg Lobban changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +4.5% and for Greg Lobban becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 76%, Greg Lobban: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 58%, Greg Lobban: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 39,704, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 37,164, level confidence: 64%.