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Tom Richards v Alan Clyne (Mon 11 Mar 2019)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-4,12-10.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,935, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 36,900, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Alan Clyne.

Tom Richards won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 64% better than Alan Clyne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 48,583 and Alan Clyne at a level of 29,572. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +18% and Alan Clyne changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +3.8% and for Alan Clyne becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 83%, Alan Clyne: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 66%, Alan Clyne: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 40,245, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 35,828, level confidence: 70%.