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Paul Coll v Tom Richards (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 60,234, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Richards: 40,275, level confidence: 66%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Tom Richards.

Paul Coll won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 144% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 144% better than Tom Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 77,007 and Tom Richards at a level of 31,503. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +14% and Tom Richards changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +3% and for Tom Richards becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 87%, Tom Richards: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 68%, Tom Richards: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 61,716, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Tom Richards: 39,494, level confidence: 64%.