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Paul Coll v Joel Makin (Wed 13 Mar 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 62,097, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 51,231, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Joel Makin.

Paul Coll won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 32% better than Joel Makin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 64,865 and Joel Makin at a level of 49,045. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +3% and Joel Makin changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +1.1% and for Joel Makin becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 82%, Joel Makin: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 79%, Joel Makin: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 62,550, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 51,003, level confidence: 84%.