SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Alfredo Avila v Evan Williams (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-5,8-11,6-11,11-1,11-5.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 32,199, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Evan Williams: 22,680, level confidence: 67%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Evan Williams.

Alfredo Avila won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 18% better than Evan Williams in this match.

As Alfredo Avila has played below his allowed range at 28,265, his level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that Alfredo Avila would normally have been playing at level 30,989 (based on typical behaviour), Evan Williams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to -4.6% and Evan Williams changes to +5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes -1.5% and for Evan Williams becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Manitoba Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 77%, Evan Williams: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 70%, Evan Williams: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 31,695, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Evan Williams: 23,152, level confidence: 75%.