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Paul Coll v Mathieu Castagnet (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 12-10,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 62,459, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 45,375, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Mathieu Castagnet.

Paul Coll won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 62% better than Mathieu Castagnet in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 67,739 and Mathieu Castagnet at a level of 41,838. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 7.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +6.9% and Mathieu Castagnet changes to -7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +1.7% and for Mathieu Castagnet becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 89%, Mathieu Castagnet: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 82%, Mathieu Castagnet: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 63,326, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 44,809, level confidence: 80%.