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Mazen Hesham v Diego Gobbi (Thu 07 Mar 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-8,8-11,13-11,1-11,3-11.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 40,801, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 18,734, level confidence: 65%.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing 118% better than Diego Gobbi.

Diego Gobbi won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 19% better than Mazen Hesham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of 30,110 and Mazen Hesham at a level of 25,386. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 61% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +38% and Mazen Hesham changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +8% and for Mazen Hesham becomes -5.6%.

Given Diego Gobbi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.

Given Mazen Hesham's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 69% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is +4.4% and for Mazen Hesham is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 81%, Mazen Hesham: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 50%, Mazen Hesham: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 39,925, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 19,530, level confidence: 50%.